2023 Kentucky Derby Picks – Our Expert Picks

The country’s finest three-year-olds will battle for Kentucky Derby glory at Churchill Downs on May 6. Racebooks have already released odds on “The Run for the Roses,” and Kentucky Derby picks are in high demand.

This page will provide Kentucky Derby expert picks on the race winner, along with picks for exotic markets such as the exacta and trifecta. You will find the best available Kentucky Derby odds at leading racebooks and learn more about betting on this eagerly anticipated race.

2023 Kentucky Derby Favorites

Forte is the current favorite in the Kentucky Derby odds after blowing his rivals away in the Grade I Florida Derby earlier in the spring. However, he is expected to face stern competition from the stable companions Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns, plus Angel Of Empire and gloebtrotting Japanese horses Derma Sotogake and Continuar. These are the odds on the main contenders available at the top betting sites:

 All prices quoted correct as of 09:00 EDT on Friday, May 5 2003.

Basketball Insiders’ Kentucky Derby Expert Picks

We have analyzed every Kentucky Derby contender in exhaustive detail. These are our Kentucky Derby expert picks:

Our Kentucky Derby Pick to Win

It is hard to look past Forte, who has leading claims after proving himself at the top level. Although Todd Pletcher has three from his barn, the favorite is the top of Kentucky Derby 2023 picks for many handicappers and experts.

Forte became one of the leading Kentucky Derby contenders with victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland in the fall. He’s since won at Gulfstream Park twice, coming through his final prep in the Florida Derby with ease.

As he came down to the wire, Forte shot a length clear of his nearest pursuer and over another furlong at Churchill Downs he will take all the beating. He looks capable of thriving at the Kentucky Derby distance with there being absolutely no doubt about his class. We currently fancy Forte and put him right at the top of our 2023 Kentucky Derby picks.

Our top pick: 

• Forte to win the Kentucky Derby @ +300 with BetOnline
• A $10 bet would return $40 and make $30 profit

Kentucky Derby Top 3 Picks

Our top 3 picks for the Kentucky Derby are Forte, Tapit Trice and Angel Of Empire. Both appeal to be in the first three, but do need to backup their Grade I successes. Tapit Trice hails from the same barn as the favorite, so Todd Pletcher has two major contenders for the big race this time around.

Less exposed than Forte, Tapit Trice took his form to a new level with a gutsy victory in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on his final prep race. His battling qualities when faced with a sustained challenge but prevailed by a neck. Tapit Trice does have a low post position in Gate 5 to overcome, but has the toughness needed to battle.

You can bet on a horse to finish in the top two of the Kentucky Derby, which is known as a place bet. Tapit Trice is an obvious contender for a Place. Alternatively, you can bet on a horse to finish in the top three, which is known as making the show.

Angel Of Empire is Brad Cox’s best hope of Kentucky Derby glory this year after storming to Arkansas Derby success. That was an impressive prep run, if ever there was one. Another option for betting on Angel Of Empire and Tapit Trice is to place an across the board bet – which involves backing a horse on the win, place and show.

Our picks: 

• Tapit Trice to win the Kentucky Derby @ +600 with Bovada
• Angel Of Empire to win the Kentucky Derby @ +800 with BetOnline

Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks

From those handicapping the Kentucky Derby this year, the longshots in the futures betting do have quite a lot to find with the favorite and other fancied by oddsmakers. Raise Cain was nearest at the finish in fifth under a waiting ride in the Blue Grass Stakes.

He would’ve been closer after coming out of the gate awkwardly at the start. Raise Cain is by the same sire as the favorite, Forte, in Violence. Given a more positive ride out of a wide draw, he could outrun his longshot odds in the Kentucky Derby futures betting for the Ben Colebrook barn.

William Mott saw his Country House awarded the race in 2019. He’ll be hoping that Rocket Can, another interesting longshot in the Kentucky Derby 2023 picks, can be first past the post this time. A course winner in the fall, this Into Mischief colt has something to find with the favorite on their Fountain Of Youth clash earlier in the year.

Despite that, however, Rocket Can just missed out on the show by a head in the Arkansas Derby during his final prep race. Although never on terms with Angel Of Empire, he does tie form lines together with Forte and was keeping on well at the wire. The return to Churchill Downs and extra furlong in the Kentucky Derby could suit Rocket Can.

Our picks: 

• Raise Cain to win the Kentucky Derby @ +6600 with MyBookie
• Rocket Can to win the Kentucky Derby @ +2000 with Xbet

Kentucky Derby Exotic Picks

The Kentucky Derby is the most important horse racing event of the year, so everyone is looking for picks. Most of them focus on the race winner, but you may also be interested in exotic picks. The term “exotic” covers all markets apart from the win, place and show, such as the exacta, trifecta, superfecta, quinella, and so on.

Kentucky Derby 2023 Exacta Picks

We are going for Forte to finish ahead of Tapit Trice in our Kentucky Derby exacta picks. An exacta requires you to predict the race winner and the runner-up in that exact order – hence the name. You can alternatively go for a quinella, where you pick the top two in any order.

Forte and Tapit Trice are both exciting contenders for Todd Pletcher in this race, but the former may just have that touch of class that the rest of field hasn’t proven. He should relish the trip and hold off his rivals, including those from within his own barn.

Our picks: 

• 1st: Forte
• 2nd: Tapit Trice

Exactas can result in large payouts, so bettors often keep their bet amounts relatively low. We will not know how much the exacta pays until the dividend is revealed after the race. As an example, a $2 exacta paid out $503.60 on last year’s Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby 2023 Trifecta Picks

We have Forte, Tapit Trice and Angel Of Empire in our Kentucky Derby 2023 trifecta picks. This exotic bet is more complicated than the exacta. It is notoriously difficult to make Kentucky Derby trifecta picks, and it requires leaving out a lot of highly-rated contenders.

For example, to compile this trifecta, we need to exclude 17 others in the final field of 20. One or more of those could outrun their odds and into the show, but each of our selections is a Grade I winner in a recognized Kentucky Derby trial.

A trifecta requires you to pick the winner, the runner-up and the third-place horse in that exact order. You can alternatively go for a boxed trifecta to hedge your bets a little.

Our picks: 

• 1st: Forte
• 2nd: Tapit Trice
• 3rd: Angel Of Empire

The trifecta payout will be revealed at the end of the race, depending on who finishes in the top three. Last year, a $2 trifecta paid out $3,393.80.

Kentucky Derby 2023 Superfecta Picks

It is time to deliver our superfecta picks for the Kentucky Derby. This is even trickier than the trifecta, because you need to specify the first four horses that will cross the finish line.

We are going for Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel Of Empire and Japanese raider Derma Sotogake in our Kentucky Derby 2023 superfecta picks.

Many international horse racing fans expect Derma Sotogake to win the Kentucky Derby after an impressive victory in the Middle East last time out. His win in the UAE Derby at Meydan during Dubai World Cup night proves that Japanese horses are delivering on the global stage.

Overseas Kentucky Derby expert picks believe Derma Sotogake can build on that performance at Churchill Downs. It would be historic for a Japanese thoroughbred to triumph here, but a wide draw helps his cause and he can get in the first four.

Our picks: 

• 1st: Forte
• 2nd: Tapit Trice
• 3rd: Angel Of Empire
• 4th: Derma Sotogake

A $2 exacta at last year’s Kentucky Derby paid $18,912.80.

Kentucky Derby 2023 Super Hi-Five Picks

Getting all the horses to make a top five finish in Kentucky Derby 2023 picks is the ultimate test of handicapping. It’s hard enough pulling off an exacta, so you’ll be very lucky to get the Super Hi-Five up.

Our experts aren’t daunted by this challenge, however, and select Kingsbarns from a low draw to get into the first five. Also trained by Pletcher like Forte and Tapit Trice, this Uncle Mo colt has a low draw to overcome out of Gate 6 but may be taken into the race by his barn buddy in the adjacent stall.

Kingsbarns enjoyed an all-the-way success in the Louisiana Derby and has been kept fresh for the Kentucky Derby ever since. He’ll need to jump out the gate smartly again, but has top jockey Jose Ortiz in the saddle here.

A Super Hi-Five is a prediction on the first five runners to finish the race, in that exact order, so it is very difficult to predict, but it can result in very large payouts.

Our picks: 

• 1st: Forte
• 2nd: Tapit Trice
• 3rd: Angel Of Empire
• 4th: Derma Sotogake
• 5th: Kingsbarns

A Super Hi-Five bet worth $2 would have paid out $593,538.20 last year at the Kentucky Derby.

Our Top 3 Picks for the Kentucky Derby

These are our top picks for the top picks for the Kentucky Derby:

Pick 1: Forte to Win the Kentucky Derby

Any handicapper will tell you that Forte has a favorite’s chance. A wide draw means he won’t be squeezed out on the rails whilst cornering the bends at Churchill Downs and no other horse in this year’s line-up has anything like the multiple Grade I successes on his resume. Forte is the one the field all has to beat.

Pick 2: Tapit Trice to Place in the Kentucky Derby

Todd Pletcher also has Tapit Trice and Kingsbarnsdrawn low in the race. While that puts them at a disadvantage tactically with the latter perhaps the pace angle in the race, it can be overcome to get in the first two. Tapit Trice’s battling qualities showed when winning the Blue Grass Stakes means he will be up for the fight in any rough riding that might happen.

Pick 3: Angel Of Empire to Show in the Kentucky Derby

Outside of the Pletcher trio, Brad Cox has four in the line-up with Angel Of Empire the clear pick of that quartet. Gates 1 and 2 don’t do Hit Show and Verifying any favors, yet a wider draw for impressive Arkansas Derby winner mean he can keep tabs on the favorite Forte, who is outside him. Angel Of Empire should make the show minimum.

Best Kentucky Derby Betting Sites

It is important to choose a Kentucky Derby betting site that offers generous fixed odds, quick payouts, great bonuses and a strong all-round user experience. We reviewed each racebook and decided that these are the best Kentucky derby betting sites in 2023: 

5 Key Kentucky Derby Trends That Can Help You Pick the Winner

Now that you know our Kentucky Derby picks for this year’s big race and our top places to wager, we also asked expert handicappers to study stats and trends. While there are no guarantees these find you the winner, they do help you make better decisions as a bettor. These are our top 5 key Kentucky Derby trends:

Trials to Follow

The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park is one of the best prep races, producing 30% (six) of Kentucky Derby winners since 2001. Five of those were from 2006 onwards and three since 2013.

Don’t ignore the Santa Anita Derby in California either. Three winners and a second from that race have gone to glory at Churchill Downs since 2012.

Favorites

If you want to bet the Kentucky Derby favorite, then since 2008 you would’ve had a 50-50 chance of that horse winning. This race used to have a reputation as a graveyard for market leaders.

All that changed during the last decade, however, when six consecutive Kentucky Derby favorites won between 2013 and 2018. You can’t ignore the most fancied runner these days.

Prep Race Winners

While not all Kentucky Derby winners were victorious in their last prep run, many more were than not. Nine of the last 12 successful (75%) at Churchill Downs scored on their final start.

That is down to eight consecutive horses winning on the road to the Kentucky Derby between 2011 and 2018. It also helps to explain why just over two-thirds of big race heroes this century (68%) tasted victory en route to Churchill Downs.

Post Position

A low draw and post position can be the kiss of death if our Kentucky Derby trends are any indicator. Almost two-thirds (64%) of winners this century came out of gate 8 or higher.

No Kentucky Derby winner in that time jumped out of a gate number lower than 4 either. A higher draw is a trend in the big one at Churchill Downs that bettors just can’t ignore. Horses somehow seem to get a clear run on the outer while the innermost struggle.

Trainers & Jockeys

John Velazquez has three wins in the Kentucky Derby from the saddle since 2011. He rides Reincarnate this year.

With Bob Baffert banned from training horses right now, Todd Pletcher and Doug O’Neill have both won this race twice since 2010. Pletcher saddles three from his barn this year in the favorite Forte, Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns.

What are Kentucky Derby Picks?

Kentucky Derby picks are predictions on how the big race will unfold. The art of predicting the winner of the race and exotic bets is known as handicapping. It requires studying detailed past performance data on each of the runners. We assessed their relative strengths and weaknesses in a bid to predict the result of the race.

When coming up with Kentucky Derby top picks, it is important to analyze the Beyer Speed Figures. You also need to factor in the class of races each horse has flourished in, assessing how well the horse has fared against high-quality opposition.

Pace and the capability to handle the distance are also important considerations when making free Kentucky Derby picks. After crunching the data, the idea is to rank each horse and predict the order in which they will finish. That allows you to come up with Kentucky Derby picks on the win, place, show, exacta and so on.

Where to Find Kentucky Derby Expert Picks

We have highlighted our top Kentucky Derby free picks on this page, but we understand that you may want a second – and perhaps a third and fourth – opinion.

You can find Kentucky Derby expert picks at KentuckyDerby.com. There are Kentucky Derby handicapper picks from experienced analysts there. You will also find Kentucky Derby free picks and Kentucky Derby sleeper picks at ChurchillDowns.com.

Try to find reliable experts, rather than relying on a random bettor on Twitter. You can consider paying for Kentucky Derby picks today, but most people stick to Kentucky Derby free picks.

How to Make Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions

It is fun and potentially very profitable to make your own Kentucky Derby picks and predictions. If you want to learn how to bet on the Kentucky Derby, check out our dedicated guide. When handicapping the race, you can focus on five key criteria:

• Speed Figures | Check out the speed figures from Beyer, Brisnet and Timeform US to see who has impressed this year. Consider the consistency with which they have earned high scores and the conditions they were running in when posting them.
• Class | It is important to consider how well the various Kentucky Derby contenders have performed against the country’s leading three-year-olds this year. The Arkansas Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, and the Wood Memorial are the key prep races.
• Post Positions | When the post positions are announced, check who has been handed a favorable draw based on historical data.
• Pace and Style | Try to anticipate the pace at which the race will develop and whether it will favor front-runners, stalkers or closers.
• Staying Power | Distance capability is a crucial component for any Kentucky Derby winner. Try to figure out which runners can flourish during the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby.

Remember to claim bonuses too, as you can benefit from lots of horse racing free bets on the race, giving you more scope to test out your Kentucky Derby 2023 picks.

Picks and Parlays for the Kentucky Derby

A parlay allows you to predict the winners of multiple races and combine them into a single bet. You could specify which horse will win the Kentucky Derby along with three other races taking place that day, for instance.

It is difficult to achieve a successful parlay, but you can earn huge payouts if you guess correctly. The profit from each correct pick rolls onto the next leg, meaning the overall payout compounds. However, the house edge increases with each leg you add too, so you should proceed with caution.

More on horse racing betting…

If you would like to learn more about betting on the Kentucky Derby, check out these pages:

• Best Kentucky Derby betting sites – A guide to the best racebooks for Kentucky Derby bettors.
• Kentucky Derby odds – An overview of how to read the odds on the Kentucky Derby contenders.
• How to bet on the Kentucky Derby – A detailed guide to placing a wager on the Kentucky Derby.
• Best racebooks – Discover the leading online betting sites for horse racing.
• Horse racing free bets – A guide to the free bet bonuses that racebooks offer in the build-up to the Kentucky Derby.
• Horse racing betting apps – Learn how to place quick, convenient mobile wagers on the big race.
• Parimutuel betting – An explanation of how horse racing payouts are calculated.
• Pool betting – Discover the process used by racebooks to calculate dividends for winning bettors.
• Virtual horse racing – Delve into the weird and wonderful world of betting on virtual horse races.

FAQs

Has a filly ever won a Triple Crown race?

A filly won the Kentucky Derby in 1915, 1980 and 1988, while Rags to Riches won the Belmont Stakes in 2007 and Swiss Skydiver won the Preakness in 2020. Check out our 2023 Kentucky Derby picks and expert Kentucky Derby longshot picks to see if any fillies stand a chance this year.

Who is the favorite for the 2023Kentucky Derby?

The favorite for the Kentucky Derby is Forte, trained Todd Pletcher. He is a common selection in Kentucky Derby 2023 picks, but he faces intense competition from within his own barn and other stables. Check out our Kentucky Derby odds and picks  for more details.

Has any horse won the Kentucky Derby twice?

It is impossible for a horse to win the Kentucky Derby twice, as it is only open to three-year-olds, so the reigning champion is always too old to compete. It is possible for a jockey to win it multiple occasions, and Eddie Arcaro leads the way with five victories.

Are Kentucky Derby horses geldings?

Many horses that flourish in the Kentucky Derby are geldings. Check out our picks and parlays on the Kentucky Derby to see which geldings have a chance of success this year. You will also benefit from Kentucky Derby Race 10 picks and Kentucky Derby Race 11 picks.

Who are the top picks for the Kentucky Derby?

Forte has proved popular in the Kentucky Derby expert picks. This is because of four Grade I wins in his career to date. Forte is now featured in many Kentucky Derby pro picks as a result. Fellow Todd Pletcher trained horse Tapit Trice is next best, according to the futures betting. He and Brad Cox’s Angel of Empire also feature in the Kentucky Derby picks and predictions.

Can a female horse run in the Kentucky Derby?

Fillies are welcome to race in the Kentucky Derby, where they will have set weights of 121 lbs. However, the last filly to win the race was Winning Colors in 1988. Male horses dominate the Kentucky Derby top picks and Vegas picks on Kentucky Derby 2023.

Who is the best horse in the Kentucky Derby?

This remains to be seen until the result, but Forte is the top-rated horse in the Kentucky Derby handicapper picks. He is expected to be strong in the Triple Crown races this year, having impressed in prep races. Check out our 2023 Kentucky Derby picks and analysis for more details.

Who are the favorites for the Kentucky Derby?

Forte, Tapit Trice and Angel Of Empire are currently the top 3 picks for Kentucky Derby glory among the fixed odds compilers. Forte is the clear favorite, but the other two are not far behind, and the odds could change by Derby Day. Check out our Kentucky Derby free picks for advice.